Has Housing Finally Bottomed?
Posted by Steve Kleber on Nov 11, 2011
Welcome to the Kleber & Associates blog! Has Housing Finally Bottomed? Here’s the latest.
For the last five years, below-trend new home supply has likely more than compensated for the prior six-year bubble of overbuilding. Why so confident, you may ask? Quite simply, we’re witnessing higher unit orders and backlogs from the homebuilders. Lennar reported an 11% third-quarter rise in new home orders. Hovnanian’s net contracts jumped 33%…a growth rate matched by Beazer Homes in its own fourth-quarter. What’s more, KB Homes backlog is now up to 22%.
The U.S. home-ownership rate rose in the third-quarter, as rising rental rates are now beginning to moderate recent competitive demand trends for apartments. The National Association for Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose four points to 18 in October… the highest one month gain in more than a year.
And demand appears to be stable as The National Association of Realtors reported that sales rose in every state in the third-quarter—year-over-year—with 45 states posting double-digit gains.
Compelling evidence I’d say… just in time for the critical 2012 planning season.
Click each image to view the full 3 month performance