Housing Market

Year End Economic Outlook

December began with the stock market’s best performance in almost three years.

The unemployment rate fell to a 2 ½ year low, while the number of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes surged to the highest level in a year. Homebuilders are now as confident as they were in May 2010. What’s more, consumer confidence rose by the most since April 2003, on the heels of record breaking retail sales from Black Friday and Cyber Monday. And it wasn’t all flat screens and iPads either — as Home Depot shares are now at a 52 week high.

U.S. factory activity expanded to its highest level since June, while construction spending climbed to an annual rate of some $800 billion… led by housing and commercial starts.

The Census Department released its monthly New Residential Homes Report showing a +1.3% monthly increase and +8.87% increase year-over-year. The inventory of new homes has now fallen to the lowest level seen in the last 47 years.

The U.S. is on target to invest more than $337 billion on our homes, with annualized private residential fixed investment rising 3% for the quarter, based on the Bureau Economic Analysis. Significantly, this is only the second increase since 2006… and this time it’s not boosted by artificial government tax-credit stimulus.

While shadow foreclosure inventory and the European economic community both appear to be held in check (at least for now) by coordinated institutional effort, I remain quite optimistic for the new year. How about you?

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Has Housing Finally Bottomed?

Nov 2011

For the last five years, below-trend new home supply has likely more than compensated for the prior six-year bubble of overbuilding.  Why so confident, you may ask?  Quite simply, we’re witnessing higher unit orders and backlogs from the homebuilders.  Lennar reported an 11% third-quarter rise in new home orders.  Hovnanian’s net contracts jumped 33%…a growth rate matched by Beazer Homes in its own fourth-quarter.  What’s more, KB Homes backlog is now up to 22%.

The U.S. home-ownership rate rose in the third-quarter, as rising rental rates are now beginning to moderate recent competitive demand trends for apartments.  The National Association for Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose four points to 18 in October… the highest one month gain in more than a year.

And demand appears to be stable as The National Association of Realtors reported that sales rose in every state in the third-quarter—year-over-year—with 45 states posting double-digit gains.

Compelling evidence I’d say… just in time for the critical 2012 planning season.

Click each image to view the full 3 month performance

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Better Design for Small Spaces

In case you missed it, I had the pleasure of hosting a webinar last month with Leah Thayer of daily 5 Remodel on the small spaces trend for homes that has swept the nation.

The trend toward larger homes in the U.S. stopped abruptly in 2007, and the resulting trend toward small spaces will impact the housing market for years to come. In this webinar, I outline strategies for remodelers, designers and architects to inspire homeowners to “right-size” their existing homes in ways that emphasize quality over quantity, enhance their existing spaces and conserve energy and resources.

Also featured in the webinar are how several manufacturers have evolved their product lines to meet these emerging desires, how architects use “design tricks” to small spaces feel larger, and how remodelers can add function and appeal to every space inside — and outside — their clients’ homes.

You can take part by clicking the image below:

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